The concept of flying cars, once confined to science fiction, is accelerating towards reality. While industry pioneers Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) are making tangible progress towards commercialization, their stock prices have experienced a significant pullback over the past month.
For patient long-term investors, this downturn may be creating a rare entry point.
Joby Aviation has established a leading position in the race to commercialize electric air taxis. The company is currently in the final stages of the certification process with the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), with its first conforming aircraft having begun powered-on testing. Management expects FAA test pilots to begin flight tests early next year—a critical milestone paving the way for targeted commercial launch in 2026.
Joby’s current stock price sits approximately 35% below its 52-week high, with its market capitalization retreating to around $12.8 billion. While this valuation remains substantial for a company with minimal revenue, Joby’s roster of partners underscores its potential. Toyota has invested nearly $900 million and is assisting with scaling production. NVIDIA is collaborating on developing an autonomous flight system using its IGX Thor platform. Uber, which sold its eVTOL division to Joby, remains a strategic partner, aiming to integrate air taxis into its mobility network.
This year, Joby has completed over 600 test flights, including a two-week series of regular demonstration flights in Osaka, Japan, ahead of the 2025 World Expo. The company recently announced a $250 million aircraft sales agreement with Kazakhstan, demonstrating international market demand even prior to full certification.
Archer Aviation has taken a differentiated path: while it plans to sell aircraft to operators, it is also heavily focused on building the necessary infrastructure for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), targeting both intra-city and inter-city short-distance flights. Archer’s stock has seen a deeper correction than Joby’s, falling about 34% in the past month (to $7.54 as of Nov 26) and well below its 52-week high of $14.60.
Quietly, Archer has been laying a solid foundation for long-term growth. The company recently acquired the Los Angeles Hawthorne Airport for $126 million, securing a strategic hub less than three miles from LAX and adjacent to the SoFi Stadium. With the 2028 Olympics coming to Los Angeles, Archer is positioning itself to serve one of the world’s most congested cities. The company boasts a strong financial position with over $2 billion in liquidity to support multi-year development. It also has a manufacturing partnership with Stellantis, a conditional order from United Airlines, and partnerships with several Asian and Middle Eastern carriers.
Despite the stock decline, Wall Street remains optimistic, with a consensus price target around $12.40, implying roughly 70% upside from current levels. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has continued to buy shares on weakness, indicating that at least one prominent growth investor views this pullback as an opportunity rather than a warning.
Neither stock is suitable for investors seeking short-term gains. Both companies are not yet profitable and are burning significant cash for certification and scaling. The industry also faces risks, including regulatory delays, manufacturing challenges, and potential slower-than-expected user adoption.
However, the potential reward is substantial. The urban air mobility market is projected to grow into a multi-billion-dollar industry by the end of this decade. Joby and Archer, with their strong partnerships, capital resources, and technological advancements, are positioned as leaders. For investors with ample patience, the stocks experiencing the most severe short-term volatility can sometimes generate the most significant long-term wealth—making this deep correction worthy of attention.
